Alternative epidemic indicators for COVID-19 in three settings with incomplete death registration systems.

Not all COVID-19 deaths are officially reported, and particularly in low-income and humanitarian settings, the magnitude of reporting gaps remains sparsely characterized. Alternative data sources, including burial site worker reports, satellite imagery of cemeteries, and social media-conducted surveys of infection may offer solutions. By merging these data with independently conducted, representative serological studies within a mathematical modeling framework, we aim to better understand the range of underreporting using examples from three major cities: Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), Aden (Yemen), and Khartoum (Sudan) during 2020. We estimate that 69 to 100%, 0.8 to 8.0%, and 3.0 to 6.0% of COVID-19 deaths were reported in each setting, respectively. In future epidemics, and in settings where vital registration systems are limited, using multiple alternative data sources could provide critically needed, improved estimates of epidemic impact. However, ultimately, these systems are needed to ensure that, in contrast to COVID-19, the impact of future pandemics or other drivers of mortality is reported and understood worldwide.

Adult mortality before and during the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic in nine communities of Yemen: a key informant study.

INTRODUCTION: Widespread armed conflict has affected Yemen since 2014. To date, the mortality toll of seven years of crisis, and any excess due to the COVID-19 pandemic, are not well quantified. We attempted to estimate population mortality during the pre-pandemic and pandemic periods in nine purposively selected urban and rural communities of southern and central Yemen (Aden and Ta'iz governorates), totalling > 100,000 people. METHODS: Within each study site, we collected lists of decedents between January 2014-March 2021 by interviewing different categories of key community informants, including community leaders, imams, healthcare workers, senior citizens and others. After linking records across lists based on key variables, we applied two-, three- or four-list capture-recapture analysis to estimate total death tolls. We also computed death rates by combining these estimates with population denominators, themselves subject to estimation. RESULTS: After interviewing 138 disproportionately (74.6%) male informants, we identified 2445 unique decedents. While informants recalled deaths throughout the study period, reported deaths among children were sparse: we thus restricted analysis to persons aged ≥ 15 years old. We noted a peak in reported deaths during May-July 2020, plausibly coinciding with the first COVID-19 wave. Death rate estimates featured uninformatively large confidence intervals, but appeared elevated compared to the non-crisis baseline, particularly in two sites where a large proportion of deaths were attributed to war injuries. There was no clear-cut evidence of excess mortality during the pandemic period. CONCLUSIONS: We found some evidence of a peak in mortality during the early phase of the pandemic, but death rate estimates were otherwise too imprecise to enable strong inference on trends. Estimates suggested substantial mortality elevations from baseline during the crisis period, but are subject to serious potential biases. The study highlighted challenges of data collection in this insecure, politically contested environment.

"They cannot afford to feed their children and the advice is to stay home. How‥?": A qualitative study of community experiences of COVID-19 response efforts across Syria.

INTRODUCTION: COVID-19 highlighted the importance of meaningful engagement between communities and health authorities. This is particularly challenging in conflict-affected countries such as Syria, where social protection and food security needs can hinder adherence to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccine uptake. This study explored community perspectives of COVID-19 and health authority responses across the three main areas of control in Syria, i.e. Syrian government-controlled areas (GCA), autonomous administration-controlled areas (AACA), and opposition-controlled areas (OCA). METHODS: We conducted a qualitative study, interviewing 22 purposively-sampled Syrians accessing health services in AACA, GCA, or OCA in 2021 to provide approximately equal representation by governance area and gender. We analysed data thematically using deductive and inductive coding. FINDINGS: Interviewees in all areas described how their fears of COVID-19 and willingness to adhere to NPIs decreased as their local COVID-19 epidemics progressed and NPIs disrupted access to household essentials such as work and food. Community-level responses were minimal and ad hoc, so most people focused on personal or household protective efforts and many mentioned relying on their faith for comfort. Misinformation and vaccine hesitancy were common in all areas, linked to lack of transparency from and mistrust of local health authorities and information sources. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic has increased health actors' need to engage with communities to control disease spread, yet most NPIs implemented in Syria were inappropriate and adherence decreased as the pandemic progressed. This was exemplified by lockdowns and requirements to self-isolate, despite precarious reliance on daily wages, no subsidies for lost income, individual self-reliance, and mistrust/weak communication between communities and health authorities. We found minimal community engagement efforts, consisting entirely of informing with no efforts to consult, involve, collaborate, or empower. This contributed to failures of health actors to contextualise interventions in ways that respected community understandings and needs.

Whose voices should shape global health education? Curriculum codesign and codelivery by people with direct expertise and lived experience.

There are contrasting opinions of what global health (GH) curricula should contain and limited discussion on whose voices should shape it. In GH education, those with first-hand expertise of living and working in the contexts discussed in GH classrooms are often absent when designing curricula. To address this, we developed a new model of curriculum codesign called Virtual Roundtable for Collaborative Education Design (ViRCoED). This paper describes the rationale and outputs of the ViRCoED approach in designing a new section of the Global Health Bachelor of Science (BSc) curriculum at Imperial College London, with a focus on healthcare in the Syrian conflict. The team, importantly, involved partners with lived and/or professional experience of the conflict as well as alumni of the course and educators in all stages of design and delivery through to marking and project evaluation. The project experimented with disrupting power dynamics and extending ownership of the curriculum beyond traditional faculty by codesigning and codelivering module contents together with colleagues with direct expertise and experience of the Syrian context. An authentic approach was applied to assessment design using real-time syndromic healthcare data from the Aleppo and Idlib Governorates. We discuss the challenges involved in our collaborative partnership and describe how it may have enhanced the validity of our curriculum with students engaging in a richer representation of key health issues in the conflict. We observed an enhanced self-reflexivity in the students' approach to quantitative data and its complex interpretation. The dialogic nature of this collaborative design was also a formative process for partners and an opportunity for GH educators to reflect on their own positionality. The project aims to challenge current standards and structures in GH curriculum development and gesture towards a GH education sector eventually led by those with lived experience and expertise to significantly enhance the validity of GH education.

Leveraging community mortality indicators to infer COVID-19 mortality and transmission dynamics in Damascus, Syria.

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in substantial mortality worldwide. However, to date, countries in the Middle East and Africa have reported considerably lower mortality rates than in Europe and the Americas. Motivated by reports of an overwhelmed health system, we estimate the likely under-ascertainment of COVID-19 mortality in Damascus, Syria. Using all-cause mortality data, we fit a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission to reported mortality, estimating that 1.25% of COVID-19 deaths (sensitivity range 1.00% - 3.00%) have been reported as of 2 September 2020. By 2 September, we estimate that 4,380 (95% CI: 3,250 - 5,550) COVID-19 deaths in Damascus may have been missed, with 39.0% (95% CI: 32.5% - 45.0%) of the population in Damascus estimated to have been infected. Accounting for under-ascertainment corroborates reports of exceeded hospital bed capacity and is validated by community-uploaded obituary notifications, which confirm extensive unreported mortality in Damascus.

'We need someone to deliver our voices': reflections from conducting remote qualitative research in Syria.

The need to generate evidence in spaces considered insecure and inhabited by potentially extremely vulnerable individuals (e.g. conflict-affected people who may not have means to move) has led researchers to study conflict-affected settings remotely. Increased attention to remote research approaches from social scientists, due to COVID-19-related travel restrictions, is sparking interest on appropriate methods and tools. Drawing on several years' experience of remotely conducting qualitative research in Syria, we discuss challenges and approaches to conducting more inclusive, participatory, and meaningful research from a distance. The logistics, ethics, and politics of conducting research remotely are symptomatic of broader challenges in relation to the decolonisation of global and humanitarian health research. Key to the success of remote approaches is the quality of the relationships researchers need to be able to develop with study participants without face-to-face interactions and with limited engagement 'in the field'. Particularly given overdue efforts to decolonise research institutions and methods, lead researchers should have a meaningful connection with the area in which they are conducting research. This is critical both to reduce chances that it will be extractive and exploitative and additionally for the quality of interpretation.

Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic: a geospatial and statistical analysis in Aden governorate, Yemen.

BACKGROUND: The burden of COVID-19 in low-income and conflict-affected countries remains unclear, largely reflecting low testing rates. In parts of Yemen, reports indicated a peak in hospital admissions and burials during May-June 2020. To estimate excess mortality during the epidemic period, we quantified activity across all identifiable cemeteries within Aden governorate (population approximately 1 million) by analysing very high-resolution satellite imagery and compared estimates to Civil Registry office records. METHODS: After identifying active cemeteries through remote and ground information, we applied geospatial analysis techniques to manually identify new grave plots and measure changes in burial surface area over a period from July 2016 to September 2020. After imputing missing grave counts using surface area data, we used alternative approaches, including simple interpolation and a generalised additive mixed growth model, to predict both actual and counterfactual (no epidemic) burial rates by cemetery and across the governorate during the most likely period of COVID-19 excess mortality (from 1 April 2020) and thereby compute excess burials. We also analysed death notifications to the Civil Registry office over the same period. RESULTS: We collected 78 observations from 11 cemeteries. In all but one, a peak in daily burial rates was evident from April to July 2020. Interpolation and mixed model methods estimated ≈1500 excess burials up to 6 July, and 2120 up to 19 September, corresponding to a peak weekly increase of 230% from the counterfactual. Satellite imagery estimates were generally lower than Civil Registry data, which indicated a peak 1823 deaths in May alone. However, both sources suggested the epidemic had waned by September 2020. DISCUSSION: To our knowledge, this is the first instance of satellite imagery being used for population mortality estimation. Findings suggest a substantial, under-ascertained impact of COVID-19 in this urban Yemeni governorate and are broadly in line with previous mathematical modelling predictions, though our method cannot distinguish direct from indirect virus deaths. Satellite imagery burial analysis appears a promising novel approach for monitoring epidemics and other crisis impacts, particularly where ground data are difficult to collect.

"Ten years of war! You expect people to fear a 'germ'?": A qualitative study of initial perceptions and responses to the COVID-19 pandemic among displaced communities in opposition-controlled northwest Syria.

BACKGROUND: Response to the COVID-19 pandemic has challenged even robust healthcare systems in high-income countries. Syria, a country experiencing protracted conflict, has the largest internally-displaced population globally with most displaced settlements in opposition-controlled areas governed by local and international NGOs. This study aimed to explore community perspectives on challenges and potential solutions to reduce COVID-19 transmission among displaced communities in opposition-controlled Northwest Syria. METHODS: We used a qualitative study design, conducting 20 interviews with displaced Syrians in opposition-controlled camps in Northwest Syria between April-May 2020 and ensuring over half our interviewees were women. We analysed data thematically. RESULTS: Participants described already difficult camp conditions that would be detrimental to an effective COVID-19 response, including household crowding, inadequate sewerage and waste management, insufficient and poor-quality water, and lack of cleaning supplies. Participants most frequently mentioned internet as their COVID-19 information source, followed by NGO awareness campaigns. Men had access to more accurate and comprehensive COVID-19 information than women did. Isolating (shielding) high-risk people within households did not appear feasible, but participants suggested 'house-swapping' approaches might work. While most participants had sufficient knowledge about COVID-19, they lacked practical tools to prevent transmission. CONCLUSION: This study is the first to explore perspectives and lived experiences of internally-displaced Syrians in the weeks prior to the COVID-19 epidemic in Northwest Syria. The challenging living conditions of internally-displaced people in Syria are further threatened by the spread of COVID-19. Tailored control measures are urgently needed to reduce COVID-19 transmission in camps.